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The first breach of 1.5°C will be a temporary but devastating failure

Limiting global warming to 1.5°C has become the defining measure of success in the climate fight and we need to think about what comes next


| Analysis

16 January 2023

The goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C was agreed in Paris in 2015

Chesnot/Getty Images

The world has already warmed by about 1.2°C since pre-industrial times. Within the next four years, there is a 48 per cent chance temperatures could breach the 1.5°C threshold for the first time, according to the UK Met Office. At most, the world has nine years until breaching 1.5°C for at least one year is inevitable, according to the Global Carbon Project.

It would be a totemic milestone. The 1.5°C target has become …

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